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Forex trading crowds remain heavily net-long the US Dollar through time of writing, leaving little scope for a short-term Dollar recovery. Last week we called for continued USD losses on one-sided positioning, and indeed the Greenback continue to lose ground as our SSI ratios remained extreme. More recently we have seen somewhat of a moderation in Dollar longs—especially against the Euro, Japanese Yen, and Canadian Dollar. This ostensibly leaves room for further dollar pullbacks, but we can hardly call for major reversals until we see price move substantively in the same direction. As it stands, we remain bearish and forecast losses in the US Dollar.

Historical Charts of Speculative Forex Trading Positioning

EURUSD – The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.53 as nearly 61% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.32 as 70% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 26.6% higher than yesterday and 24.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 16.2% lower than yesterday and 9.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.3% weaker than yesterday and 0.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD – The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.40 as nearly 58% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.00 as 50% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 23.9% lower than yesterday and 25.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 6.3% higher than yesterday and 5.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 8.8% weaker than yesterday and 6.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

USDJPY – The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.81 as nearly 64% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.46 as 71% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 10.6% lower than yesterday and 28.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 21.2% higher than yesterday and 48.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.4% weaker than yesterday and 6.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF – The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 3.13 as nearly 76% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.44 as 77% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.0% lower than yesterday and 9.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.3% higher than yesterday and 7.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.9% weaker than yesterday and 1.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

USDCAD – The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.54 as nearly 72% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.06 as 75% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 11.0% lower than yesterday and 13.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.1% higher than yesterday and 19.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.5% weaker than yesterday and 3.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

GBPJPY – The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.19 as nearly 54% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.71 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 27.5% lower than yesterday and 31.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 47.6% higher than yesterday and 37.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.2% stronger than yesterday and 13.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.